New Seat Details - Lincoln and North Hykeham

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lincoln and North Hykeham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	25,245	46.5%
LAB	24,541	45.3%
LIB	1,686	3.1%
UKIP	1,482	2.7%
Green	760	1.4%
OTH	520	1.0%
CON Majority	704	1.3%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Lincoln and North Hykeham: Map

List of old seats forming part of Lincoln and North Hykeham

Old seat: Lincoln

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lincoln, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lincoln				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Lincoln	Abbey	5,644	Lincoln and North Hykeham	2,016	2,829	145	145	75	0	0	54	5,264
Lincoln	Birchwood	5,559	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,814	1,771	42	103	41	0	0	14	3,785
Lincoln	Boultham	5,230	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,297	1,875	85	92	41	0	0	21	3,411
Lincoln	Bracebridge	5,524	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,683	1,386	119	91	37	0	0	12	3,328
Lincoln	Carholme	5,897	Lincoln and North Hykeham	2,503	3,242	263	143	117	0	0	133	6,401
Lincoln	Castle	5,353	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,480	1,706	96	89	45	0	0	26	3,442
Lincoln	Glebe	4,987	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,493	1,805	71	92	40	0	0	26	3,527
Lincoln	Hartsholme	4,834	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,649	1,154	88	81	32	0	0	11	3,015
Lincoln	Minster	5,353	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,505	1,666	46	90	41	0	0	20	3,368
Lincoln	Moorland	5,294	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,438	1,737	68	94	37	0	0	13	3,387
Lincoln	Park	4,030	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,482	2,155	113	111	55	0	0	30	3,946
North Kesteven	Bracebridge Heath and Waddington East	6,592	Sleaford	2,619	1,373	93	105	15	0	0	50	4,255
North Kesteven	Skellingthorpe	2,818	Lincoln and North Hykeham	815	635	55	52	8	0	0	27	1,592
	Total	67,115		21,794	23,334	1,284	1,288	584	0	0	437	48,721

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lincoln seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sleaford and North Hykeham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sleaford and North Hykeham				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
North Kesteven	Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell	3,893	Sleaford	2,392	709	90	60	32	0	0	37	3,320
North Kesteven	Bassingham and Brant Broughton	3,884	Sleaford	1,897	598	96	164	37	0	0	35	2,827
North Kesteven	Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme	4,009	Sleaford	1,713	975	104	70	40	0	0	43	2,945
North Kesteven	Branston	3,889	Sleaford	1,878	757	131	67	47	0	0	42	2,922
North Kesteven	Cliff Villages	4,215	Sleaford	2,037	814	129	72	51	0	0	54	3,157
North Kesteven	Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs	4,140	Sleaford	2,053	780	124	65	43	0	0	42	3,107
North Kesteven	Heckington Rural	4,269	Boston and Skegness	2,023	752	112	207	39	0	0	47	3,180
North Kesteven	Heighington and Washingborough	5,417	Sleaford	2,664	842	193	224	59	0	0	28	4,010
North Kesteven	Kirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme	1,875	Boston and Skegness	922	338	46	29	16	0	0	18	1,369
North Kesteven	Leasingham and Rauceby	1,736	Sleaford	831	296	51	28	18	0	0	20	1,244
North Kesteven	Metheringham	4,142	Sleaford	2,154	803	127	70	44	0	0	39	3,237
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Forum	1,809	Lincoln and North Hykeham	903	398	83	37	24	0	0	21	1,466
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Memorial	2,195	Lincoln and North Hykeham	933	422	86	38	26	0	0	24	1,529
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Mill	3,702	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,619	660	117	57	38	0	0	42	2,533
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Moor	1,854	Lincoln and North Hykeham	794	396	79	35	62	0	0	20	1,386
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Witham	1,919	Lincoln and North Hykeham	926	333	60	32	20	0	0	17	1,388
North Kesteven	Osbournby	1,861	Sleaford	964	308	39	27	16	0	0	18	1,372
North Kesteven	Ruskington	4,329	Sleaford	2,199	855	114	76	40	0	0	49	3,333
North Kesteven	Sleaford Castle	1,789	Sleaford	881	523	77	43	27	0	0	28	1,579
North Kesteven	Sleaford Holdingham	1,929	Sleaford	914	536	77	44	26	0	0	30	1,627
North Kesteven	Sleaford Navigation	1,817	Sleaford	898	564	82	47	26	0	0	26	1,643
North Kesteven	Sleaford Quarrington and Mareham	5,296	Sleaford	2,585	1,151	196	106	61	0	0	61	4,160
North Kesteven	Sleaford Westholme	1,793	Sleaford	799	520	73	43	25	0	0	29	1,489
North Kesteven	Waddington West	1,887	Lincoln and North Hykeham	895	371	70	100	21	0	0	9	1,466
South Kesteven	Belvoir	2,639	Sleaford	1,311	440	59	33	23	0	0	13	1,879
South Kesteven	Grantham Arnoldfield	177	Grantham and Stamford	74	38	6	9	2	0	0	2	131
South Kesteven	Grantham St Wulfram's	228	Grantham and Stamford	94	63	8	11	3	0	0	1	180
South Kesteven	Loveden Heath	2,057	Sleaford	1,012	382	58	33	21	0	0	28	1,534
South Kesteven	Peascliffe and Ridgeway	3,889	Sleaford	1,954	712	116	64	41	0	0	38	2,925
South Kesteven	Viking	3,988	Sleaford	1,925	672	119	60	42	0	0	38	2,856
	Total	86,627		42,244	17,008	2,722	1,951	970	0	0	899	65,794

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sleaford and North Hykeham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lincoln and North Hykeham

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Lincoln and North Hykeham
Lincoln	Abbey	7,898	Lincoln	2,016	2,829	145	145	75	0	0	54	5,264
Lincoln	Birchwood	5,681	Lincoln	1,814	1,771	42	103	41	0	0	14	3,785
Lincoln	Boultham	5,119	Lincoln	1,297	1,875	85	92	41	0	0	21	3,411
Lincoln	Bracebridge	4,995	Lincoln	1,683	1,386	119	91	37	0	0	12	3,328
Lincoln	Carholme	9,607	Lincoln	2,503	3,242	263	143	117	0	0	133	6,401
Lincoln	Castle	5,165	Lincoln	1,480	1,706	96	89	45	0	0	26	3,442
Lincoln	Glebe	5,292	Lincoln	1,493	1,805	71	92	40	0	0	26	3,527
Lincoln	Hartsholme	4,522	Lincoln	1,649	1,154	88	81	32	0	0	11	3,015
Lincoln	Minster	5,053	Lincoln	1,505	1,666	46	90	41	0	0	20	3,368
Lincoln	Moorland	5,081	Lincoln	1,438	1,737	68	94	37	0	0	13	3,387
Lincoln	Park	5,922	Lincoln	1,482	2,155	113	111	55	0	0	30	3,946
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Forum	2,027	Sleaford and North Hykeham	903	398	83	37	24	0	0	21	1,466
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Memorial	2,112	Sleaford and North Hykeham	933	422	86	38	26	0	0	24	1,529
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Mill	3,501	Sleaford and North Hykeham	1,619	660	117	57	38	0	0	42	2,533
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Moor	1,917	Sleaford and North Hykeham	794	396	79	35	62	0	0	20	1,386
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Witham	1,917	Sleaford and North Hykeham	926	333	60	32	20	0	0	17	1,388
North Kesteven	Skellingthorpe	2,390	Lincoln	815	635	55	52	8	0	0	27	1,592
North Kesteven	Waddington West	2,027	Sleaford and North Hykeham	895	371	70	100	21	0	0	9	1,466
	Total	80,226		25,245	24,541	1,686	1,482	760	0	0	520	54,234

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lincoln and North Hykeham. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Unknown (changed seat) (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	80,226
Turnout:	67.6%

Lincoln and North Hykeham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lincoln and North Hykeham: Overview

Introduction